February 19, 2024
Master's Project: Reliability Estimation in Series Systems
My master's project on maximum likelihood estimation for series systems with right-censored and masked failure data.
Statistics
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February 19, 2024
Fine-Tuning a Tiny LLM for ElasticSearch DSL
Fine-tuning a small language model to generate ElasticSearch DSL queries from natural language, as a proof of concept for domain-specific LLM specialization.
February 18, 2026
Masked Failure Data: Looking Back, Looking Forward
A retrospective on three years of building R packages and writing papers for masked series system reliability, and what comes next.
February 13, 2026
Observation Functors: Composable Censoring for Series System Simulation
Observation functors in maskedcauses: composable functions that separate the data-generating process from the observation mechanism, enabling mixed-censoring simulation and verified Monte Carlo studies.
February 5, 2026
maskedcauses: Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Masked Series System Failures
The maskedcauses R package for MLE in series systems with masked component failures, built on composable likelihood contributions and validated through simulation.
December 17, 2025
compositional.mle: SICP-Inspired Optimization
An R package where optimization solvers are first-class functions that compose through chaining, racing, and restarts.
December 16, 2025
Graduate Statistics Problem Sets
My graduate coursework from SIUe's math program is up: time series, regression, computational stats, multivariate analysis, and statistical methods.
December 16, 2025
symlik: Symbolic Likelihood Models in Python
Define statistical models symbolically and automatically derive score functions, Hessians, and Fisher information. No numerical approximation.
December 3, 2025
mdrelax: When Masking Conditions Don't Hold
Extending masked failure data analysis when the standard C1-C2-C3 masking conditions are violated.
December 3, 2025
Model Selection for Weibull Series Systems: When Simpler Models Suffice
When can reliability engineers safely use simpler models? Likelihood ratio tests on Weibull series systems give sharp boundaries.
December 2, 2025
Closed-Form Results for Masked Exponential Series Systems
Closed-form MLEs and Fisher information for exponential series systems with masked failure data. No numerical optimization required.
September 30, 2024
All Induction Is the Same Induction
Solomonoff induction, MDL, speed priors, and neural networks are all special cases of one Bayesian framework with four knobs.
February 19, 2024
Approximations of Solomonoff Induction
I experiment with simple predictive / generative models to approximate Solomonoff induction for a relatively simple synthetic data-generating process.
March 29, 2023
Model Selection in Weibull Series Systems
In my paper, Reliability Estimation in Series Systems, I discarded a lot of research that may be interesting to pursue further. This one is about using homogeneous shape parameters for the Weibull series system, which can greatly simplify the …
June 30, 2022
likelihood.model: Composable Likelihood Models in R
A generic R framework for composable likelihood models. Likelihoods are first-class objects that compose through independent contributions.
March 25, 2022
hypothesize: A Consistent Interface for Statistical Tests
An R package that gives hypothesis tests a consistent interface. Every test returns the same structure. You can write generic code that works across all of them.
October 30, 2021
Computational Statistics - SIUe - STAT 575 - Problem Set 2
This problem set covers the E-M algorithm for right-censored normal data with known variance.
October 30, 2021
Review: A Symbolic Representation of Time Series, with Implications for Streaming Algorithms
A review of SAX (Symbolic Aggregate approXimation), a method for converting real-valued time series into symbolic representations with guaranteed distance lower bounds.
August 20, 2021
flexhaz: Specify the Hazard Function Directly
An R package for specifying hazard functions directly instead of picking from a catalog of named distributions. You write the hazard. It handles the rest.
May 15, 2021
algebraic.mle: MLEs as Algebraic Objects
An R package that treats MLEs as algebraic objects. They carry Fisher information, compose through independent likelihoods, and propagate uncertainty correctly.
February 1, 2021
algebraic.dist: Distributions as Algebraic Objects in R
An R package that treats probability distributions as algebraic objects. They compose through standard operations. The algebra preserves distributional structure.
September 20, 2014
The Bayesian Prediction Framework
Model averaging over hypotheses, the principled way to handle uncertainty in prediction